Truths & Myths About Automated Vehicle Safety

The complete series and Director's Cut all in one!

Here is an indexed list of my complete Truth & Myth for Automated Vehicle Safety video series! Something like 2.5 hours of material over 21 segments.

Series description:

The past year has seen both peak hype and significant issues for the automated vehicle industry. In this talk we recap general trends and summarize the current situation for autonomous vehicles such as robotaxis, as well as conventional vehicles that have automated steering features. Many of the issues the industry faces are self-inflicted, stemming from a combination of inflated promises, attempts to scale immature technology too aggressively, and an overly narrow view of safety. Overall, the companies deploying the technology have failed to address legitimate concerns of a wide variety of stakeholders. There are a number of different aspects that still need to be addressed including: legislation, regulation, liability, insurance, driver skills, traffic enforcement, emergency services, vulnerable road users, engineering standards, business models, public messaging, investor pressure, cultural change, ethical/equity concerns, and local oversight. We concentrate on how all these pieces need to fit together to create sustainable automated vehicle technology approaches.

All Released Videos: YouTube Play List | Archive.org big video

Slide deck (acrobat)

Individual Videos:

• 1. Introduction & Overview (9 min.)

  • Overview

  • Why is AV Safety Complicated?

  • Robotaxis: Safety Is Our #1 Priority

  • Automated Vehicle Incidents

  • Public Trust Is Eroding

  • Types of Vehicle Automation

• 2. Truth or Myth? -- You Can Ride In An Autonomous Vehicle Today (5 min.)

  • Robotaxi Deployments

  • Other Testing & Deployments

  • Remote Operators

  • Autonomous pilot deployments are already on public roads; testing continues

• 3. Truth or Myth? -- Can Personally Owned Vehicles Can Drive Themselves? (6 min.)

  • Personal Vehicles Require Supervision

  • Things Can Go Very Wrong

  • IIHS: Only 1 of 14 Automated Steering Systems Is Acceptable

  • Automated steering requires continuous human driver attention - not really "self driving"

• 4. Truth or Myth? -- Are People Are Inherently Terrible Drivers? (8 min.)

  • The Myth of 94% Human Error

  • It Ain't 94%

  • Industry: Replace Terrible Human Drivers

  • Human Drivers Can Improve Over Time

  • Might We Do Better?

  • Many Countries Do Better Than the US At Road Safety

  • Better road safety does not require using computer drivers

• 5. Truth or Myth? -- Computer Controlled Active Safety Features Can Improve Safety (2 min.)

  • Active Safety Can Really Work!

  • Example Car Active Safety Features

  • Computer-controlled features can improve safety

• 6. Truth or Myth? -- Does Automated Steering Improve Driving Safety? (4 min.)

  • Automated Steering Vs. Active Safety

  • Active Safety Makes The Difference, Not Automated Steering

  • IIHS: Automated Steering Is Not A Safety Feature

  • Automated steering is a convenience feature, not a safety feature

• 7. Truth or Myth? -- People Are Terrible At Supervising Automation (10 min.)

  • Automation Bias & Complacency

  • NTSB Recommendations For Supervision Safety

  • Risk of Degraded Safety Due To Automation Complacency

  • Driver Monitoring To The Rescue?

  • Driver attention management is an open challenge

• 8. Truth or Myth? -- Are Ordinary Drivers Are Qualified To Test Driving Automation? (6 min.)

  • Public Road Beta Testing

  • Road Testing Can Cause Real Harm

  • Customers cosplaying "beta tester" expose everyone to undue risk

• 9. Truth or Myth? -- Blaming Drivers Deflects Accountability Away from Companies (6 min.)

  • The Moral Crumple Zone

  • Uber ATG Autonomous Vehicle Tester Blamed

  • Tesla Autopilot Double Fatality Driver Blame Story

  • Blaming drivers protects the company, not necessarily other road users

• 10. Truth or Myth? -- Does Lots of Sensors Means No Avoidable Collisions? (5 min.)

  • Perception Builds the World Model

  • Sensors Alone Do Not Ensure Safety

  • Sensors aren't enough; perception and prediction are critical for safety

• 11. Truth or Myth? -- Computers Won't Drive Drunk ... but ... (8 min.)

  • Human Error ==> Robot Error

  • Handling Non-Crash Hazards

  • City of San Francisco Concerns

  • Beyond Just Avoiding Crashes

  • Robot drivers will fail -- sometimes differently than human drivers

• 12. Truth or Myth? -- Safe Enough Requires More Than "Safer Than A Human Driver" (7 min.)

  • What People Mean By "Safe"

  • Positive Risk Balance

  • Other Safety Considerations

  • AVs need more than improved statistical average safety

• 13. Truth or Myth? -- Will Insurance Cost Pressure Ensure Acceptable Automated Vehicle Safety? (6 min.)

  • Insurance leverage for safety

  • Affordable Insurance vs. Safety

  • Net Risk Alone Is Not Safety

  • Insurance pressure alone will not ensure acceptable safety

• 14. Truth or Myth? -- Autonomous Vehicle Ethics (Not just the Trolley Problem) (7 min)

  • The Infamous Trolley Problem

  • Ethics: Deployment Governance

  • Equity Concerns for AVs

  • Ethics/Equity Question that matters: Who decides what/when/where to deploy?

• 15. Truth or Myth? -- Does 10 Million Good Miles Prove Autonomous Vehicles Are Safe? (6 min.)

  • 2023: Results from 1M+ Miles

  • How Many Road Testing Miles To Prove Safety?

  • Are Robotaxis Safer?

  • Companies predict -- but cannot yet prove -- severe injury/fatality safety

• 16. Truth or Myth? -- Does Road Testing Make Autonomous Vehicles Safe? (15 min.)

  • How About a Robot Driver Test?

  • Brute Force Road Testing

  • The Challenge Is Covering Everything

  • Safety Requires an Accurate World Model

  • Heavy Tail Distribution of Surprises

  • Heavy Tail Edge Cases Explained

  • Safety Engineering In A Nutshell

  • Safety depends on engineering to mitigate rare, high-consequence events

• 17. Truth or Myth? -- Do Safety Standards Exist? Do They Stifle Innovation? (8 min.)

  • Standards Set an Expectation of Safety

  • Safety Standards & Innovation

  • Case Study: Loss of the Titan Submersible

  • Safety Standards Deter UNSAFE Innovation

• 18. Truth or Myth? -- Will Government Regulation Ensure Safe Vehicle Automation? (9 min.)

  • Robotaxi Regulatory System In Action

  • US Regulatory Posture

  • Regulators Struggle with Novel Technology

  • Trend: System Safety Recalls

  • Federal Recall-Based Strategy Struggling To Deal With System-Level Safety

• 19. Truth or Myth? -- Will Product Liability Ensure Safe Vehicle Automation? (5 min.)

  • Product Liability Is Not Enough

  • Product Liability Is The Wrong Tool for Most Automated Vehicle Crashes

• 20. Truth or Myth? -- Current Tort Liability Rules Will Ensure Safe Vehicle Automation (21 min.)

  • Tort Law For Engineers

  • Duty of Care for Accountability

  • Implications of Defining a Computer Driver

  • Alternate to SAE Levels for Regulation

  • The Awkward Middle: Supervisory Mode

  • Urgency of Defining a Computer Driver

  • Providing A Safety Guardrail

  • Tort Law Could Help Support Safety -- Via the Computer Driver Concept

• 21. Conclusions (2 min.)

  • Essential Vehicle Automation Safety

  • Resources